The Brazilian Agribusiness Dependency on Russian Fertilizers
Brazil estimates a 10% increase in fertilizer imports for the upcoming quarter.
According to the Federal Government Portal, Russia accounted for 20% of all fertilizers exported to Brazil in 2021. A 10% increase in imports is expected during the first semester of 2022, following a meeting between Brazil’s Minister of Agriculture, Livestock, and Supply, Tereza Cristina, and Russian authorities in Moscow on November 17, 2021.
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Supply
“Poison Package”
Bill 6299/02 and Its Main Changes
It is worth noting that this strategic increase in fertilizer imports was followed by Bill 6299/02, approved by the Chamber of Deputies on February 9, now known as the "Poison Package." Key changes include:
- The term “pesticide” will replace “agrotoxin,” attempting to obscure the well-known harmful effects of these substances.
- New evaluations of pesticides will no longer consider health and environmental impacts but will be subject only to the Ministry of Agriculture and agribusiness economic interests.
- The possibility of registering substances proven to be carcinogenic will be admitted, with "acceptable levels" established, even though no safe levels exist for carcinogenic substances.
- Specific regulations regarding pesticide advertising will end.
- Certain pesticides will be allowed to be sold without agronomic prescriptions and for preventive use, further encouraging indiscriminate usage.
This resolution directly impacts the entry of new fertilizers into the country, making Russia an even more crucial partner for Brazil's agribusiness sector.
Source: Chamber of Deputies
Export and Import Volume: Russia vs. Ukraine
The chart below, produced by Poder 360, highlights the exponential growth of certain products imported from Russia between 2011 and 2021, accounting for 2.6% of Brazil’s total imports.
Approximately 62% of the total products imported from Russia are fertilizers, according to Brazilian trade balance data. Consequently, the Ukraine crisis directly affects Brazil’s agriculture sector.
The second chart, also produced by Poder 360, shows that Ukraine’s export and import volume with Brazil amounts to only 0.1% of the national total.
When comparing the trade agreements between Brazil and the countries involved in the conflict, the data clearly illustrates the importance of Russia as a commercial partner for Brazil.
Despite the economic impact indicators of this conflict on Brazil, Minister Tereza Cristina speaks of alternative suppliers to curb rising product prices and agricultural production costs.
"Brazil imports fertilizers from several countries. We must see what will happen. For now, we have other alternatives to replace any potential supply problems from these countries."
Excerpt from an interview with Poder 360.
Opinion
It is natural that, given Russia’s importance in strategic sectors of the Brazilian economy, President Jair Messias Bolsonaro aligns with a pro-Russia stance. However, it is important to distinguish this from Brazil’s position in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).
Since Brazil assumed a permanent seat on the UNSC, the country has taken a highly conservative approach to decisions ensuring peace, maintaining a discourse of dialogue and diplomatic resolution.
To understand Brazil's position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is essential to conduct a macro analysis of the facts and differentiate between the figure of the President of the Republic and Brazil's permanent representative to the United Nations, Ambassador Ronaldo Costa Filho. Ambassador Costa Filho has been unequivocal in his defense of peace and Ukraine's sovereignty against Russian troop advances into Ukrainian territory.
