United States and China: Partners or Rivals?
Understand the relationship between these two countries and why the chances of an armed conflict are almost zero.
To comprehend the relationship between these two global powers, we must revisit the Cold War era when the People's Republic of China aligned itself with the USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) and the communist ideals later proclaimed by Mao Tse-Tung in 1949, opposing the capitalist West led by the United States of America. Since then, both countries have lived amidst a turbulent relationship balanced by their economic interdependence.
At the time, dissatisfaction with the implementation of communism in China led many to migrate to the island of Taiwan, which subsequently declared itself independent¹. In this process, the U.S. supported Taiwan, shielding the island with its military power and economic influence.
(¹: The People's Republic of China and many other countries, including Brazil, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent territory.)
Despite their disagreements on numerous fronts, the two nations have experienced moments of rapprochement. For instance, during Bill Clinton's presidency (the 42nd President of the United States), he declared at one point that he did not support Taiwan’s separatist movement. Furthermore, his administration facilitated China's entry into the WTO (World Trade Organization) in 2001, an event that marked China’s most significant economic boom in its history.
What are these economic interdependencies?
Despite the evident rivalry, trade relations between the two countries have reached record levels. In 2021 alone, the volume of imports and exports between them totaled over $657.5 billion. For comparison, this figure is twice the GDP² of Portugal.
(²: GDP refers to the sum of all final goods and services produced by a country, state, or city, typically within a year.)
Semiconductor manufacturing is at the forefront of the U.S.’s dependence on China. China has become the largest global supply chain hub for giants like Apple, Foxconn, and Pegatron, creating an almost impossible scenario for finding a substitute with the same conditions and production capacity.
Meanwhile, China relies on the U.S. market for exporting various goods, including electrical machinery ($152 billion), appliances ($117 billion), furniture ($35 billion), games, and sports equipment ($27 billion). This list also includes televisions, cell phones, computers, telecommunications equipment, and digital accessories, making China a crucial part of the U.S.’s global trade deficit, which increased by 27% in 2021 to a record $859.1 billion.
Analysis
Spy Balloon Incident: In recent days, news channels have fueled discussions about an alleged Chinese spy balloon in U.S. airspace. Although it is too early to predict the outcome of this heightened tension, it is clear how dependent the two countries remain on one another in the overall balance of their economies. Whether or not it was indeed a spy balloon, the chances of an armed conflict remain extremely low. However, signs point to a potential path similar to the Cold War, which, in simple terms, could mean increases in export and import tariffs, incentives for local industries (on the U.S.’s part) to reduce dependency on China, and potentially a breakdown of diplomatic relations in this new escalation.
In general, what can be acknowledged is that this situation represents a dangerous game for both powers. No one emerges unscathed when global economies collide—the entire world’s trade balance suffers.
This article was written by Jota Batista, an International Relations student at Universidade Cruzeiro do Sul.
This is an opinion article without journalistic intent, aimed at scientific purposes, focusing on the study of the [re]organization of global geopolitics to promote, inter alia, debate within academic circles.
